Yes, the market are ABSOLUTELY certain that the FED will pivot. My personal thesis is that Wall Street is putting the pressure on Powell et al to slow the hawkishness. It probably why they are lying to us about QT, it much easier to get away with less/no QT since the vast majority of people are ignorant of the FEDs operations. The rate hikes are much more understandable, and public.
Jul 31, 2022·edited Jul 31, 2022Liked by Occupy the Fed Movement
Excellent as usual. I hope you don’t retire. Just saw a former Fed honcho saying the last (and only) “soft landing” was 1994-1995. That time the Fed rate STARTED at 2.5%. It went up to 6%. And inflation peaked around 4%. And the Fed balance sheet was less than $500 billion.
Bloomberg August 1: “No group benefited more than the one needing the least assistance: the ultrarich. . . . The top 1% enjoyed substantial upside as stocks soared . . . The upside for the bottom 50%, who owned virtually no stocks, was nil.”
Yes, the market are ABSOLUTELY certain that the FED will pivot. My personal thesis is that Wall Street is putting the pressure on Powell et al to slow the hawkishness. It probably why they are lying to us about QT, it much easier to get away with less/no QT since the vast majority of people are ignorant of the FEDs operations. The rate hikes are much more understandable, and public.
Excellent as usual. I hope you don’t retire. Just saw a former Fed honcho saying the last (and only) “soft landing” was 1994-1995. That time the Fed rate STARTED at 2.5%. It went up to 6%. And inflation peaked around 4%. And the Fed balance sheet was less than $500 billion.
Bloomberg August 1: “No group benefited more than the one needing the least assistance: the ultrarich. . . . The top 1% enjoyed substantial upside as stocks soared . . . The upside for the bottom 50%, who owned virtually no stocks, was nil.”